Welcome to the first edition of The Ridge Line. Every month I will give you a clear, honest read on what is happening in California housing and the economy. No jargon, just the information that helps you make smarter decisions about where you live and what you own. Think of it as your trail map for the month ahead.
Let’s get into it.
The headline this month: another record.
California’s statewide median home price hit $930,260 in May, the second consecutive record high, with home sales rising 5.1% year-over-year, the strongest annual gain in eight months, according to the California Association of REALTORS®. But the number that tells the real story is this one: million-dollar-plus homes now make up 38.5% of all transactions statewide. The high end is carrying the market and pulling the median upward, even in areas that feel quieter on the ground.
C.A.R. President Tamara Suminski noted that economic uncertainty is still weighing on buyer confidence, but that the recent easing in mortgage rates is encouraging and could bring more buyers and sellers back into the market by the third quarter.
The trail looks different depending on where you are standing. Buyers need to come prepared because homes are selling right at asking price statewide. Sellers have the edge with inventory at its tightest level since late 2023. And homeowners can take some comfort knowing the median price per square foot rose from $439 to $447 over the past year.
Regional snapshot.
Here is how the median price and year-over-year change broke down across California in May 2026.
May 2026 median price by region
Statewide — $930,260 · +3.1% YoY
San Francisco Bay Area — $1,450,000 · +3.6% YoY
Southern California — $909,500 · +2.4% YoY
Central Coast — $1,126,250 · +0.1% YoY
Central Valley — $507,750 · -0.4% YoY
Inland Empire — $615,000 · +0.8% YoY
Far North — $399,000 · +3.6% YoY
Want the data for your specific county or a deeper read on your local market? Book a 15-minute call and I will pull the numbers for you.
The economy and what it means for you.
California’s nonfarm job growth is projected at just 0.3% for 2026, and the state’s unemployment rate has been running above 5% all year. A labor market that is holding but not accelerating tends to keep buyers cautious, especially first-timers who need income confidence before committing to a mortgage.
The 30-year fixed rate settled around 6.44% in May, up slightly from April but a full point lower than May 2025. HousingWire analyst Logan Mohtashami has been consistent on this all year: demand tends to pick up meaningfully when rates break below 6.64% and head toward 6%. Despite recent rate pressure, purchase applications were up 7% year-over-year, which he sees as a sign of genuine resilience, not fragility.
Barry Habib, CEO of MBS Highway, put it plainly at HousingWire’s 2026 Housing Economic Summit: when rates make their next move lower, sales go vertical. His view is that true inflation may already be closer to the Fed’s 2% target than the headlines suggest, and that when bond markets catch up to that reality, rates could drop into the mid-5% range. Both he and Mohtashami agree on the underlying point: the buyers have not gone anywhere. They have been waiting.
Mark your calendar for July.
Three dates that could move mortgage rates this month.
Key July 2026 data points
July 2 — Jobs Report. Strong numbers keep the Fed patient. Weak numbers raise hopes for a rate cut.
July 14 — CPI Inflation Report. The most watched data point heading into the Fed meeting later in the month. A cooler number could push rates down. A hot one does the opposite.
July 28–29 — FOMC Meeting. The Fed’s current target range is 3.50% to 3.75%, where it has been held since December 2025. The Chair’s press conference will be worth watching closely.
The view from the ridge.
The terrain ahead has some uncertainty, but the fundamentals are solid footing. Rates are trending in the right direction, demand is resilient, and the high end of the California market continues to set the pace. For buyers waiting for the right rate environment, mid-5% territory is becoming a plausible target for the back half of the year. For sellers, the inventory advantage is real today but unlikely to last if rates do drop meaningfully.
If you own a home and want to know what it is actually worth right now — real data, not an algorithm guess — you can grab a free Home Report with your property’s current value, equity position, and local market trends. It takes about 30 seconds.
Want a real conversation about what this means for your specific situation? Book a 15-minute call. No pitch, no obligation. Just a clear read on your numbers.
Future editions of The Ridge Line will cover whatever you tell me you want to see. Mortgage rate deep dives, neighborhood spotlights, buying vs. renting breakdowns, first-time buyer guides, investment property considerations — this newsletter is for you. If something specific is on your mind, let me know.
The numbers always tell a story. Let’s see what yours say.
Fifteen minutes on the phone and you will know exactly where you stand in this market. If we are a good fit, you will know. If we are not, I will tell you that too.
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